Blackjack, six decks, H17, BCLC 4-6-9-20-30-100-1000 pay table · side bet
King's Bounty
a blackjack side bet on two-card twenties, with a 1000:1 award for two kings of spades against a dealer blackjack
The published +9 count wins, and most of the money sits in a 1000:1 award that takes about five thousand hours to show up.
The card is already published, and it is close to the most any system could take out of this bet. Count ace through nine as +1, ordinary ten-value cards as −2, and the king of spades as −6. At the standard cut, betting at raw true count +9 produces a 9.59% edge on 2.65% of live rounds.
With a $100 side bet and a flat $15 blackjack hand, the standard scenario makes $15.80 per hundred rounds, or $31.61 an hour at 200 rounds per hour. It wants a $133,800 bankroll and about 565,000 rounds before the win rate outruns the noise.
That hourly needs a large asterisk. The 1000:1 event lands about once per 1,025,000 blackjack rounds under this betting schedule. A path with no top-rung hit averages $12.09 an hour. The lower awards keep the play positive on their own, so $12.09 is closer to what the first few thousand hours actually pay.
1The bet
Any two-card 20 can win, from 4:1 for an ordinary unsuited 20 to 1000:1 for two kings of spades against a dealer blackjack.
You post King's Bounty with the blackjack wager. Only the player's first two cards count. A winning hand receives the highest award it qualifies for, and every other hand loses the side stake.
The official rules include suited ace-nine as a suited 20. They allow six decks or a continuous shuffler, require a main wager, and permit the side wager to exceed the main wager. This page prices the six-deck shoe version.
| player's first two cards | pays to 1 |
|---|---|
| unsuited 20, excluding a king pair | 4 |
| two kings of different suits | 6 |
| suited 20 | 9 |
| suited pair of tens, jacks or queens | 20 |
| two suited kings, excluding spades | 30 |
| two kings of spades, dealer has no blackjack | 100 |
| two kings of spades, dealer has blackjack | 1000 |
| outcome | probability | one in |
|---|---|---|
| K♠ pair + dealer blackjack | 0.001456% | 68,666 |
| K♠ pair, no dealer blackjack | 0.029461% | 3,394 |
| other suited kings | 0.092753% | 1,078 |
| suited pair of T/J/Q | 0.371012% | 270 |
| other suited 20 | 2.077665% | 48.1 |
| unsuited kings | 0.445214% | 225 |
| other unsuited 20 | 7.568637% | 13.2 |
2Checking against the published numbers
The exact game matches to six figures. The published simulation is worth more per hundred hands than perfect play can earn at the cut card it names, and it reproduces six cards deeper.
against the published record
✓pay table, suited A-9 and highest-award ruleBCLC Rules for Play✓house edge 23.1637% vs 23.164% publishedEliot Jacobson✓SD 4.8706 vs 4.871 publishedEliot Jacobson✓all eight combinatorial rowsEliot Jacobson✓removal effects, all thirteen ranksEliot Jacobson≠0.5508 units per 100 exceeds the 0.5113 exact ceiling at the stated 260-card cutEliot Jacobson✓both published count rows reproduce at a 266-card cutEliot Jacobson✓Pennsylvania 1000-200-50-25-9-6-4 schedulePennsylvania Code § 633a.13Exact four-card enumeration gives a 23.163717% house edge and 4.870601 standard deviation. The published figures are 23.164% and 4.871, all eight printed outcome counts match as integers, and the published removal effects match to the digit.
The live row did not go the same way. At the article's 260-card cut and +9 target, 60,000 shoes give 3.970% ± 0.036% of rounds at a 12.066% ± 0.097% edge, worth 0.4790 ± 0.0065 units per hundred. The article reports 4.372% at 12.598%, worth 0.5508.
So I measured what that cut card allows anyone. Price every round start from the exact cards left and stake every round with a positive expectation, and the answer is 0.5113 ± 0.0111 units per hundred, on 4.21% of rounds at a 12.15% edge. A second block of 20,000 shoes returns 0.5121 ± 0.0114. Nothing beats that number at a 260-card cut, because a count, a divisor, a rounding rule and a trigger are all just ways of choosing which rounds to bet. The published 0.5508 sits 3.6 standard errors above it.
Moving the cut card six cards deeper reproduces the article. At 266 cards of 312, the published card bets 4.335% at 12.636%, worth 0.5477 against the published 0.5508, and the article's plain ten count lands the same way, 4.044% at 12.061% against a published 3.996% at 12.144%. His Buster Blackjack article, same series and same stated 260-card cut, reproduces the same way between 266 and 268 cards. And his six-deck Lucky Ladies table, printed under the same stated cut, reports 49.584 hands per shoe where a 260-card cut deals 47.663 at 5.505 cards a hand.
The pay table, the removal effects and the tags all check out, so the count is right and the cut card printed above it is not the one the simulation ran. Read his published rows as a game dealt about one round past 260 cards. This page uses my own measurements at the depths it names.
3The ceiling
A machine reading the full remaining composition can earn 0.3033 units per hundred positions at the standard cut and 0.5372 at the 260-card cut.
I priced every sampled deal position from all 52 card-type counts. At 0.75 penetration, the exact composition is positive 3.19% of the time at an average 9.50% edge. One half-deck deeper, the positive window grows to 4.44% at 12.10%.
The average edge off the top stays fixed at every depth. A uniformly chosen undealt shoe gives the same four-card expectation as the fresh shoe. Deeper dealing spreads the possible compositions farther apart, which creates more positive tails for the count to find.
Sampled deal positions are not quite the same thing as blackjack rounds, so I ran the same oracle over live round starts. At the 260-card cut it stakes 4.21% of rounds at a 12.15% edge, worth 0.5113 ± 0.0111 units per hundred rounds. That is the number the published simulation has to fit under.
| penetration | positive positions | edge when positive | units per 100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.75 | 3.19% | +9.50% | +0.3033 |
| 0.833 | 4.44% | +12.10% | +0.5372 |
| 0.85 | 4.71% | +12.75% | +0.6005 |
4Where the value hides
The +9 region wins because small cards have left the shoe and ten-value cards, especially kings of spades, remain.
I walked every deal position through 4,000 six-deck shoes, choosing the trigger on half of them and scoring it on the other half.
Every rung of the ladder wants ten-value cards, and the two top rungs want one specific card, which is why the king of spades is tagged at three times an ordinary ten. Small cards leaving is what pushes the count up, and a shoe that has spent its small cards and kept its kings is the shoe worth betting.
The curve crosses into profit at +7. The +9 trigger gives up some frequency for a stronger edge, and it earns the most on the shoes it was scored against.
| trigger | positions bet | edge when bet | units per 100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| +6 | 8.82% | −0.36% | −0.0320 |
| +7 | 6.40% | +2.53% | +0.1616 |
| +8 | 4.65% | +5.44% | +0.2531 |
| +9 | 3.35% | +8.49% | +0.2845 |
| +10 | 2.43% | +11.56% | +0.2803 |
| +11 | 1.72% | +14.83% | +0.2555 |
5Fitting a count
The published card takes 93.8% of the standard-cut ceiling. Exact weights plus a king-of-spades side count raise that to 97.9%.
The published card tags ace through nine +1, ordinary ten-value cards −2, and the king of spades −6. Fixed +9 returns 0.2845 units per hundred positions against the 0.3033 exact ceiling at 0.75 penetration. At the 260-card cut it returns 0.5124 against 0.5372, or 95.4% capture.
I fitted continuous weights from the exact fresh-shoe removal effects and added the number of kings of spades left as a second signal. That system captures 97.9% at the standard cut and 97.4% at the deeper cut. Exact ace, nine, ten and king aggregates with the same side count reach 99.3% at the standard cut.
Matching suits and duplicate kings mean the bet's value is not quite a sum of per-card weights, so I tried systems that account for that. They beat the published card by a few hundredths of a unit per hundred rounds, which does not pay for the extra bookkeeping at the table.
| penetration | system | units per 100 | capture |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.75 | published card, fixed +9 | +0.2845 | 93.8% |
| 0.75 | exact EOR + K♠ left | +0.2970 | 97.9% |
| 0.833 | published card, fixed +9 | +0.5124 | 95.4% |
| 0.833 | exact EOR + K♠ left | +0.5235 | 97.4% |
♠How to play it
Keep one running count over every exposed card. Divide by decks remaining without rounding the result, and put out the King's Bounty maximum when the raw true count reaches +9. The blackjack wager stays flat and follows basic strategy.
| card | A-9 | T | J | Q | K except K♠ | K♠ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tag | +1 | −2 | −2 | −2 | −2 | −6 |
| when | action |
|---|---|
| shuffle | running count to zero |
| every exposed card | add its tag, including other player hands and the dealer hand |
| true count | running count divided by decks remaining |
| raw TC +9 or higher | $100 King's Bounty bet, $15 blackjack bet |
| below raw TC +9 | no King's Bounty bet, $15 blackjack bet |
| blackjack play | basic strategy, with the main stake flat at $15 |
6Playing it out of sample
Sixty thousand fresh shoes keep raw +9 positive at both cuts, with 0.2540 units per hundred live rounds at the standard depth.
The live engine dealt one basic-strategy hand through 60,000 fresh shoes at each cut. It evaluated every qualifying round from the exact remaining composition, so the certification does not depend on how many 1000:1 events happened to land.
At 0.75 penetration, raw +9 bets 2.649% ± 0.030% of rounds at a 9.587% ± 0.091% edge. The result is 0.2540 ± 0.0042 units per hundred, or 83.7% of the full-composition position ceiling. At the 260-card cut, it earns 0.4790 ± 0.0065, or 89.2% of that ceiling.
Actual round starts run a little below the rounded position scan because the live rule uses the unrounded true count and blackjack hands consume cards in uneven blocks. Both live samples use fresh seeds outside the fitting set.
7The ledger
The standard-cut scenario makes $32 an hour in the long run and $12 an hour on paths where the 1000:1 result has not arrived.
The scenario charges a flat $15 blackjack hand its 0.6397% house edge, or $9.60 per hundred rounds. The $100 King's Bounty wagers return $25.40, leaving $15.80.
The 1000:1 row supplies 38.4% of the side bet's profit and 61.7% of the dollars left once the main game has taken its cut. It also carries 70.2% of the variance, which is what drives the bankroll up to $133,800.
Under this schedule the 1000:1 result appears once per 1,024,583 blackjack rounds. At 200 rounds per hour, the average wait is 5,123 hours and half of players wait longer than 3,551. Getting to a 95% chance of having seen one takes 15,347 hours.
Take that row out and the rest of the ladder still earns $6.05 per hundred rounds, or $12.09 an hour. The $31.61 is the right long-run number. The $12.09 is what the road to it looks like.
the scenario
| penetration | rounds bet | net per 100 rounds | bankroll | time to signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.75 | 2.65% | +$15.80 | $133,800 | 565,100 rounds |
| 0.833 | 3.97% | +$38.31 | $87,400 | 152,300 rounds |
| case | net per 100 rounds | hourly at 200 r/h | bankroll | N0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| full pay table | +$15.80 | +$31.61 | $133,800 | 565,100 |
| conditioned on no 1000:1 event | +$6.05 | +$12.09 | $106,800 | 1,179,200 |
| top combination pays 100:1 | +$7.02 | +$14.04 | $94,000 | 894,300 |
The payout tail on triggered bets
The lower rungs do most of the gross paying, and the table below has the split. Gross winnings count money that only replaces a losing stake, which is how the 1000:1 row can be 3.9% of the awards paid and still be 38.4% of the profit.
| rung | one in triggered bets | share of gross winnings |
|---|---|---|
| K♠ pair + dealer blackjack, 1000:1 | 27,144 | 3.9% |
| K♠ pair, 100:1 | 1,449 | 7.3% |
| other suited kings, 30:1 | 782 | 4.0% |
| suited pair of T/J/Q, 20:1 | 195 | 10.8% |
| other suited 20, 9:1 | 36 | 26.5% |
| unsuited kings, 6:1 | 141 | 4.5% |
| other unsuited 20, 4:1 | 9.8 | 43.1% |
8The call
Beatable: the published count finds a real edge, and asks for a large bankroll and a long wait for most of the money.
The published +9 card captures 93.8% of the standard-cut ceiling and survives live round starts at a 9.59% edge on the rounds it bets. A richer count has too little headroom to justify carrying it.
The standard scenario earns $15.80 per hundred rounds on a $133,800 bankroll, or $31.61 an hour at 200 rounds per hour. A path where the jackpot never lands averages $12.09, and the average wait for it is 5,123 hours.
§The Pennsylvania 1000-200-50-25-9-6-4 schedule
Larger king-pair awards cut the six-deck house edge to 16.51% and move the best published-card trigger to +6.
Pennsylvania's standing schedule keeps the 1000:1 top award and raises the next three king and suited-pair awards to 200, 50, and 25. Exact six-deck enumeration gives a 16.507469% house edge.
The same published card works with a lower trigger. Fixed +6 returns 0.8610 units per hundred positions at 0.75 penetration and 1.2639 at the 260-card cut, both scored on shoes held out of the fitting. Those are position results, with no bankroll scenario attached.
| penetration | trigger | positions bet | edge when bet | units per 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.75 | +6 | 8.82% | +9.76% | +0.8610 |
| 0.833 | +6 | 10.72% | +11.79% | +1.2639 |
§What this verdict depends on
- The primary analysis is six decks and the BCLC 4/6/9/20/30/100/1000 ladder. A continuous shuffler removes the countable shoe.
- A $100 King's Bounty maximum with a $15 flat blackjack minimum. The scenario requires the side wager to exceed the main wager.
- The main wager is six-deck 3:2 H17 blackjack with double after split, no surrender and no resplit aces. It is priced at a 0.6397% house edge and follows basic strategy.
- The scenario uses 0.75 penetration. The deeper sensitivity row uses the article's 260-card cut, or 0.833 penetration.
- The live trigger is an unrounded true count of +9 with exact cards remaining as the divisor. Deck-estimation error was not priced.
- Bankroll includes measured main-side covariance and treats rounds as independent. Long sessions within one shoe can run wider than this planning figure.
- All exposed cards are counted without error, including the king of spades as a separate card type.
- The published simulation rows reproduce at a cut card about six cards deeper than the 260 the article states, and at 260 itself they exceed what perfect knowledge of the remaining cards can earn. This page uses my own measurements at the depths it names.
- The Pennsylvania section is a separate pay-table analysis and does not inherit the primary ledger.
Last updated 2026-08-11.